The mathematical models that Minnesota Governor Tim Walz has used to guide his response to the coronavirus predict that his state will experience more virus-related deaths per capita than any country on Earth.
Minnesota State House Republican Leader Kurt Daudt says that when he was briefed on the models his state has used to guide its coronavirus response, the Department of Health (MDH) refused to show their predicted death rates plotted over time. However, journalist David Montgomery of MPR took matters into his own hands recently, and used the most current predictions made by the University of Minnesota and MDH to create a visualization that shows how many Minnesotans the Walz administration believes will die of coronavirus.
The most current version of the model predicts a peak somewhere around 550-600 deaths per day, according to MPR.
This is a significantly higher death rate adjusted for population that even that which was endured by Italy, which saw a peak morality rate of around 1.4 people per 100,000, as Daudt points out.
Gov Walz current model shows Minnesota will have a peak death rate of 8.8 people per 100,000 per day. For perspective, Italy had a peak death rate of 1.36/100k/day. Gov Walz is predicting MN will have a peak death rate 7 times greater than Italy.
— Kurt Daudt (@kdaudt) May 21, 2020
Daudt’s calculations appear to be accurate according to statistics reported by Worldometer. Additionally, numbers reported by Statista show how Minnesota’s models predicts a higher peak death rate per 100,000 residents than even that which was seen in Belgium, the nation that has suffered the highest death rate per capita of anywhere in the world.
The last version of Minnesota’s models issued even more dire predictions than the current ones. Version two of the models said that a least contained senario without the governor’s sweeping stay at home orders could have resulted in 1,500 deaths per day at its peak. Even the “baseline” scenario predicted by this model foretells about 1,000 deaths per day at its high point, according to MPR.
By last model’s numbers, Minnesota could have sustained a 17.7 deaths per 100,000 residents, according to Daudt. This would make Minnesota over 170% more deadly than Italy.
842 people have died of COVID-19 in Minnesota as of May 22, per the MDH. This represents .015% of the overall state population. Presently, there has been no clear peak time period for deaths like there has been in other countries.
For comparison, Italy has already passed a very apparent peak in deaths per day.