Commentary: The ‘coalition of the ascendant’ is shattering

Republicans are confident the Democrats’ delusional obsession with identity politics and racial pandering, with apathy toward educational reform and border security, are off-putting to persuadable voters.

Two Cuban supporters of President Trump in line ahead of a November rally in Opa Locka, Florida. (Rebecca Brannon/Twitter)

The “demographics are destiny” crowd has long claimed Democrats will continuously gain support from minorities, especially Hispanics, requiring Republicans to moderate.

In perhaps an unexpected shift, new trends now have Republicans hoping Democrats’ ongoing leftward drift will cost them support from the same voting blocs.

While Donald Trump scored well with white working-class voters in 2016, he made significant inroads with non-white voters four years later, especially voters of Hispanic descent, which kept the presidential race close and likely augmented GOP congressional gains.

The national share of the Hispanic vote jumped from 7 percent of the total electorate in 2012 to 10 percent in 2020. But Hispanic voters are becoming more Republican, at least based on last year’s results.

Only 63 percent of Hispanics voted for Joe Biden last year, an 8-point drop from Hillary Clinton’s showing in 2016. The drop-off occurred among Hispanics from all nationalities: the biggest decline was among Cuban Americans (down 13 points), but Trump also made inroads with liberal-leaning Puerto Ricans (9-point gain), Dominicans (8) and Mexicans (6).

Those Republican gains occurred across a range of battleground states, including Florida (14 points), Texas (9) and Nevada (8). Trump won Florida with surprising ease (nearly 400,000 votes vs. 110,000 against Clinton).

Republicans also added House seats in majority-Hispanic districts. In Texas, GOP gains among Hispanics offset Democrat success with affluent whites; Republicans held all vulnerable House seats in the state and picked up three mayoral seats last weekend.

Republicans are confident the Democrats’ delusional obsession with identity politics and racial pandering, with apathy toward educational reform and border security, are off-putting to persuadable voters. “Defund the police” rhetoric also pushed Latino men right, while pandemic restrictions, more draconian in blue states, crushed small-business owners.

Led by Sen. Rick Scott, who’s posted three Sunshine State wins due to his outreach, the NRSC shared a survey showing Hispanic voters in eight swing states prefer conservatism.

It makes one realize that Florida, not California, better represents our future.

“Hispanic voters are aspirational and want the freedom and opportunity that Republican policies provide. Democrats believe in big spending, big government, open borders, and fewer freedoms for hardworking families — all policies soundly rejected by Hispanic voters in our poll. Hispanic voters are becoming Republican because of our agenda,” Scott wrote.

The former governor opined further this week at Fox News.

Some recent polling gives Democrats some reason to hope their slide with Hispanics last year is ephemeral. As of late last month, Biden’s approval rating with Hispanic voters rose to 72 percent, up from his November vote share.

But a newer survey from a Democrat-run outlet focused only on electoral battlegrounds; they relayed that Democrats held only a 13-point lead among Hispanics on the generic ballot. And the New York Times reported this week that a review of the 2020 election, conducted by liberal advocacy groups, indicated the party risks losing Black, Hispanic and Asian American voters.

Why? Hispanic men have much in common with non-college-educated white voters. Both have high rates of military and law enforcement service and a majority didn’t spend years being indoctrinated by mendacious university professors.

The so-called “coalition of the ascendant” — a supercilious term Democrats use for minorities, millennials, college-educated whites, and suburban women — that powered Barack Obama to wins in 2008 and 2012 never came to fruition in midterm elections or since.

As the inconsistent Biden administration waffles, nearly three in four Hispanic voters believe we should do more to stop the surge of illegal immigration. The battle between the two narratives will undoubtedly be prominent in crucial U.S. Senate races with sizable Hispanic constituencies next year in Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.